The wider housing market has an impact on the local market here in Austin TX. While it pays to take broad sweeping generalities with a pinch or two of salt, it makes interesting viewing. If you’ve been googling housing market, you’ll have seen this paid advertisement for the Goldman Sachs Housing Market Forecast for 2011.

In it, the managing director of global research Jan Hatzius predicts modest declines in house prices across the US, of the order of 5%. This is pretty significant for most homeowners. He also said that the overvaluation challenge of the housing market bubble of 2006 is behind us, and house values are somewhat predictable right now. Low mortgage interest rates coupled with accurate valuations actually put house values under long term trends, he adds.

So what does this mean? If valuations are accurate and declining in the large, how does this affect the price of an Austin TX house? The overall forecast in my opinion is for the coastal bubble states. Texas has the 32nd largest economy in the world and is seeing growth. People are moving to Austin. State unemployment is low relative to the rest of the US.

The real estate fundamentals of Austin continue to be strong. My forecast would be that there will be no decline in Austin house prices, and modest gains in some key perennially popular neighborhoods: close to employers, close to downtown, and with good schools.

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Austin’s Wells Branch is a popular MUD in North Austin between MoPac and I35.

Here are a few statistics on 2009 home sales:

Median List Price: $169,900

Sales Price to List Price Ratio: 98.9%

Average List Price / sqft: $106

Average days on market: 44

Sold vs All Listings: 87%

As you can see, home sales are strong in this area which is great for first time homebuyers.

• Search for Wells Branch homes
• Snapshot of Wells Branch housing market

Austin MLS prices

Austin’s 78756 is a vibrant area containing the Rosewood neighborhood.

There are a number of historic, locally owned businesses on Burnet Road and Northloop whose iconic signs define the area.

There are condos and houses in the area in a vast swathe of pricing – from efficiency condos below $80,000 to houses about $700,000. There are also a few duplexes in the neighborhood.

The median sales price in the last 12 months for single family homes is $337,000, with an average price per square foot in 78756 of $221.

What is your chance of selling your home in 78756? That really depends on which Rosedale Realtor you use.

Statistically, more homes have failed to sell in 78756  than have successfully sold in the last 12 months. This is shown below.

Rosedale Home Sales Data

Looking at the amount of homes for sale in 78756 right now, there are around 6 months of inventory in the Austin MLS.

• Search for Rosedale homes
• Snapshot of Rosedale housing market

I just helped a buyer put together an offer for a home in Scofield Farms, 78727. Our offer was rejected without even a counter as the their market is a sellers’ market. Inventory in the price range we are looking in is not abundant.

There are 29 homes for sale, and at the time of writing there are 15 homes under contract. There is typically an acceleration in sales at this time of year, and at current inventory levels, there are only two months of inventory. This is a strong sellers’ market.

Homes are attracting strong offers

The chart above shows a very high list price to sales price ratio, and sellers taking advice will hold out for strong offers. The area has great amenities and is convenient for major employers.

• Search for Scofield Farms homes
• Snapshot of Scofield Farms market
• Austin Sellers Market Blog