I don’t put altogether too much stock in Zillow for Texas home values as the source data they need isn’t available to them (non-disclosure state means sales prices are hidden from companies like theirs). However, looking at list prices, you can see a dip in the University Hills market which corresponded with a huge amount of foreclosures and distressed homes hitting the MLS.

Right now, only one out of 28 active or pending listings is foreclosed, and the market is balanced with 7 homes under contract and 21 available. We’re even seeing some of the foreclosed sales from the summer coming back renovated and in tip top shape.

Mueller Austin TX Control Tower

Mueller Austin is heavily featured in any list of green neighborhoods – it was the first neighborhood that was designated as a LEED Silver Certified Plan from the U.S. Green Building Council (USGBC). Not only are the homes built to an energy efficient rating scheme (Austin Energy’s Green Building Program), but the way the neighborhood is designed as a walkable mixed use community is considered and sustainable. The fact that it’s less than 3 miles to downtown is a factor, as are the extensive green spaces and commitment in the commercial buildings to LEED certification.

What does this mean for the homes sold there? The neighborhood gets a great deal of attention, and the 140 acres of parks and trails attract a great many visitors, so the grapevine for home sales is often abuzz.

The market is still in the middle of a construction boom – David Weekley and Standard Pacific are still working on production homes, in addition to larger custom homes. Greenway Lofts is selling the last of it’s low-rise condo building too. Not all of these homes are listed on the Austin Multiple Listing System – in fact most aren’t. Of the homes that were in the MLS, here are the statistics year to date for 2011:

•  The median sales price including condos and the income-qualified affordable homes is $364,225
• The median sales price without affordable homes is $374,225
• The average sales price without affordable homes is $393,557
• Average days on market is 51 days (market rate homes)
• Sales prices are as high as $679,000
• List prices are as high as $899,000
• 14 homes have sold, 3 are under contract and 9 are active (market rate)
• 3 homes have been withdrawn from the market, of which 2 have been re-listed with other agents and one of these has sold.

Overall the market remains balanced with around 3 months of market rate home inventory.

You can check out Mueller Homes For Saleand get an updated analysis of the

Mueller Housing Market

Parts of Hyde Park have recently been designated as a Local Historic District, which means that permission is required to remodel the exterior, construct or demolish a home in that part of this central Austin neighborhood. This may impact pricing for homes in that area, and in this austin real estate blog post, we look at the broader Hyde Park area as covered by the Neighborhood Association.

The median price of sold houses in Hyde Park Austin that were listed for sale in 2010 was $300,000. Of 154 listings in the year:

• 50 were withdrawn
• 19 expired
• 59 sold
• 18 are still on the market
• 8 are currently under contract

What does this mean? Only 53% of home listings have sold in 2010, the rest remain unsold or have failed to sell. The average days on market for the homes that sold was a relatively healthy 56 days.

The average sales price to list price ratio for Hyde Park homes selling in less than 30 days was a little over 98% which is great, though some pricing was a little more optimistic on the parts of the sellers with homes selling in 31-60 days averaging a ratio of just 93%.

The diverse housing stock yielded sales prices of between $119/sqft and $332/sqft which is accounted for by the vast array of sizes and ages of home in the area.

It was a tough year for just under half of people wanting to sell in Hyde Park. Compared to 2009, 10% less homes sold and the median price of those sold was 9.1% lower in 2010. While this could simply be due to different houses selling last year due to the first time homebuyer tax credit, I think values have slid a little.

Get a market snapshot of the Hyde Park housing market, or search for homes for sale there.

The wider housing market has an impact on the local market here in Austin TX. While it pays to take broad sweeping generalities with a pinch or two of salt, it makes interesting viewing. If you’ve been googling housing market, you’ll have seen this paid advertisement for the Goldman Sachs Housing Market Forecast for 2011.

In it, the managing director of global research Jan Hatzius predicts modest declines in house prices across the US, of the order of 5%. This is pretty significant for most homeowners. He also said that the overvaluation challenge of the housing market bubble of 2006 is behind us, and house values are somewhat predictable right now. Low mortgage interest rates coupled with accurate valuations actually put house values under long term trends, he adds.

So what does this mean? If valuations are accurate and declining in the large, how does this affect the price of an Austin TX house? The overall forecast in my opinion is for the coastal bubble states. Texas has the 32nd largest economy in the world and is seeing growth. People are moving to Austin. State unemployment is low relative to the rest of the US.

The real estate fundamentals of Austin continue to be strong. My forecast would be that there will be no decline in Austin house prices, and modest gains in some key perennially popular neighborhoods: close to employers, close to downtown, and with good schools.

Stay up to date with the Austin housing market with a free personalized report for your neighborhood.

Village at Western Oaks: home sales have remained strong in the Villages, with some of the consistently lowest times on market in Austin.  Sellers are contributing an average of $2531 towards buyer’s closing costs, less than 1% of the average sales price.

Average pricing drops less than 1% to final list price, with sales price around 2% lower than that. The market is good, and the higher inventory now reflects the seasonality of home sales in our neighborhood where homes listed in July and August are proportionally more likely not to sell than homes listed in other months.

The following data is for the last 3 full months, based on home sales in the Austin MLS:

# sales: 42

average list price: $260,261

median list price / sqft: $122

active listings: 45

months of inventory: 3.4

average sale/list price : 98.2%

average days on market for homes 200-250,000: 21

average days on market for homes 250-300,000: 38

average days on market for homes 300,000+ : 40

My overall sense is a strong balanced market.

Click to search homes for sale in the Village At Western Oaks

Village at Western Oaks comprises of several neighborhoods and includes the popular Dick Nichols Park with it’s heated swimming pool, volleyball courts and 150 acres of public space.

The average annual sales pattern is shown here – closings on homes in the area by month over the last five years. January and February have the fewest closings, with the remaining 10 months representing 90% of the closings on single family homes in the area.

So from the chart on the left you might conclude that the best time to put your home on the market is a month or so before June.

The next chart shows how many homes failed to sell in the 2004-2009 period. That is, homes that were listed in the MLS and either expired or were withdrawn without selling. The chart shows how many homes that were listed in a given month failed to sell as a percentage of the homes listed in that month that eventually sold.

As you can see, if you listed your home in January, February, July or August, you are less likely (all other things being equal, which is a big assumption) to sell your home. March through June are the months that you are most likely to outperform the competition.

Click to search homes for sale in the Village At Western Oaks

Homes in East Austin are some of the best value in town, and I wanted to check to see if there was as much seasonality in home sales in this part of town as the rest of Austin.

I took a look at single family home sales in the Austin Multiple Listing System (MLS) in years 2005-2009 inclusive. The areas I included were MLS areas 3 and 5 – this runs from the river on the south and is bordered by I35 and 183. By car, you can be downtown in between 2 and 15 minutes.

I focused on close date (the date the sale goes through and the title ownership switches from seller to buyer) to look for the seasonal variation. It was broadly the same distribution as the rest of Austin (see chart right.

As a rule of thumb, the time between contract date and close date is typically 30 days. So for the peak closing months of May, June and July, the contract was typically written one month earlier – from April to June.

Does this mean that the best time to put your home on the market is April? Not necessarily. Inventory is typically higher in these months, and I’ll write more about listing competition in a separate post.

• Search East Austin Homes for sale
• Research East Austin Home Prices

Austin’s Wells Branch is a popular MUD in North Austin between MoPac and I35.

Here are a few statistics on 2009 home sales:

Median List Price: $169,900

Sales Price to List Price Ratio: 98.9%

Average List Price / sqft: $106

Average days on market: 44

Sold vs All Listings: 87%

As you can see, home sales are strong in this area which is great for first time homebuyers.

• Search for Wells Branch homes
• Snapshot of Wells Branch housing market

Austin’s MLS Area 4 includes Hyde Park and Patterson Heights. Here’s a run down of how many homes sell in each month (over the last 5 years). The graph charts the contract date (when the offer is accepted) for single family homes with a list price between $300,000 and $400,000.

Monthly Home Sales

The chart shows sales in 5 full years. As you can see, the most activity happens in March, April and May.

Conversely, there is typically less competition in other parts of the year.

• Search for Hyde Park homes
• Snapshot of Hyde Park housing market

University Hills Austin Home Sales

Home sales in University Hills slowed with the rest of the Austin market at the end of 2008 as noted in a recent post. This is shown by the thin Q4 green slice left.

The first quarter of 2009 has also shown a drop in sales from previous years, as shown left. The blue slice shows that just 8 homes sold by April 1st this year.

Right now in Q2 we are in the peak selling season – see how the orange slice is generally largest in previous years.

Inventory is low right now, with 22 homes available with 8 under contract. Some lenders are taking longer to close loans right now, so assuming a closing time of 45 days from contract acceptance, this puts us at approximately

At the present rate this equates to around 4 months of inventory - technically a sellers’ market again.

University Hills Home Listings 2009

What the inventory analysis does not show is the discouragement of some sellers right now. The chart above shows that as many home sales failed this year (green and yellow) as succeeded (red).

True, many of the listings that expired or were withdrawn were on the market at the end of last year, when sales were very sluggish across all of Austin.

Given that market perception lags behind the market, the sellers who are on the market now will reap the rewards of low competition. There are relatively  few homes to choose between right now in University Hills.

• Search for University Hills homes
• Snapshot of University Hills housing market
• University Hills Real Estate Blog
• University Hills Neighborhood Newsletter