I don’t put altogether too much stock in Zillow for Texas home values as the source data they need isn’t available to them (non-disclosure state means sales prices are hidden from companies like theirs). However, looking at list prices, you can see a dip in the University Hills market which corresponded with a huge amount of foreclosures and distressed homes hitting the MLS.

Right now, only one out of 28 active or pending listings is foreclosed, and the market is balanced with 7 homes under contract and 21 available. We’re even seeing some of the foreclosed sales from the summer coming back renovated and in tip top shape.

Mueller Austin TX Control Tower

Mueller Austin is heavily featured in any list of green neighborhoods – it was the first neighborhood that was designated as a LEED Silver Certified Plan from the U.S. Green Building Council (USGBC). Not only are the homes built to an energy efficient rating scheme (Austin Energy’s Green Building Program), but the way the neighborhood is designed as a walkable mixed use community is considered and sustainable. The fact that it’s less than 3 miles to downtown is a factor, as are the extensive green spaces and commitment in the commercial buildings to LEED certification.

What does this mean for the homes sold there? The neighborhood gets a great deal of attention, and the 140 acres of parks and trails attract a great many visitors, so the grapevine for home sales is often abuzz.

The market is still in the middle of a construction boom – David Weekley and Standard Pacific are still working on production homes, in addition to larger custom homes. Greenway Lofts is selling the last of it’s low-rise condo building too. Not all of these homes are listed on the Austin Multiple Listing System – in fact most aren’t. Of the homes that were in the MLS, here are the statistics year to date for 2011:

•  The median sales price including condos and the income-qualified affordable homes is $364,225
• The median sales price without affordable homes is $374,225
• The average sales price without affordable homes is $393,557
• Average days on market is 51 days (market rate homes)
• Sales prices are as high as $679,000
• List prices are as high as $899,000
• 14 homes have sold, 3 are under contract and 9 are active (market rate)
• 3 homes have been withdrawn from the market, of which 2 have been re-listed with other agents and one of these has sold.

Overall the market remains balanced with around 3 months of market rate home inventory.

You can check out Mueller Homes For Saleand get an updated analysis of the

Mueller Housing Market

The wider housing market has an impact on the local market here in Austin TX. While it pays to take broad sweeping generalities with a pinch or two of salt, it makes interesting viewing. If you’ve been googling housing market, you’ll have seen this paid advertisement for the Goldman Sachs Housing Market Forecast for 2011.

In it, the managing director of global research Jan Hatzius predicts modest declines in house prices across the US, of the order of 5%. This is pretty significant for most homeowners. He also said that the overvaluation challenge of the housing market bubble of 2006 is behind us, and house values are somewhat predictable right now. Low mortgage interest rates coupled with accurate valuations actually put house values under long term trends, he adds.

So what does this mean? If valuations are accurate and declining in the large, how does this affect the price of an Austin TX house? The overall forecast in my opinion is for the coastal bubble states. Texas has the 32nd largest economy in the world and is seeing growth. People are moving to Austin. State unemployment is low relative to the rest of the US.

The real estate fundamentals of Austin continue to be strong. My forecast would be that there will be no decline in Austin house prices, and modest gains in some key perennially popular neighborhoods: close to employers, close to downtown, and with good schools.

Stay up to date with the Austin housing market with a free personalized report for your neighborhood.

Homes in East Austin are some of the best value in town, and I wanted to check to see if there was as much seasonality in home sales in this part of town as the rest of Austin.

I took a look at single family home sales in the Austin Multiple Listing System (MLS) in years 2005-2009 inclusive. The areas I included were MLS areas 3 and 5 – this runs from the river on the south and is bordered by I35 and 183. By car, you can be downtown in between 2 and 15 minutes.

I focused on close date (the date the sale goes through and the title ownership switches from seller to buyer) to look for the seasonal variation. It was broadly the same distribution as the rest of Austin (see chart right.

As a rule of thumb, the time between contract date and close date is typically 30 days. So for the peak closing months of May, June and July, the contract was typically written one month earlier – from April to June.

Does this mean that the best time to put your home on the market is April? Not necessarily. Inventory is typically higher in these months, and I’ll write more about listing competition in a separate post.

• Search East Austin Homes for sale
• Research East Austin Home Prices

University Hills Austin Home Sales

Home sales in University Hills slowed with the rest of the Austin market at the end of 2008 as noted in a recent post. This is shown by the thin Q4 green slice left.

The first quarter of 2009 has also shown a drop in sales from previous years, as shown left. The blue slice shows that just 8 homes sold by April 1st this year.

Right now in Q2 we are in the peak selling season – see how the orange slice is generally largest in previous years.

Inventory is low right now, with 22 homes available with 8 under contract. Some lenders are taking longer to close loans right now, so assuming a closing time of 45 days from contract acceptance, this puts us at approximately

At the present rate this equates to around 4 months of inventory - technically a sellers’ market again.

University Hills Home Listings 2009

What the inventory analysis does not show is the discouragement of some sellers right now. The chart above shows that as many home sales failed this year (green and yellow) as succeeded (red).

True, many of the listings that expired or were withdrawn were on the market at the end of last year, when sales were very sluggish across all of Austin.

Given that market perception lags behind the market, the sellers who are on the market now will reap the rewards of low competition. There are relatively  few homes to choose between right now in University Hills.

• Search for University Hills homes
• Snapshot of University Hills housing market
• University Hills Real Estate Blog
• University Hills Neighborhood Newsletter

East Austin Sales

Homes in University Hills in East Austin saw an abrupt halt at the end of 2008.

The green slice on the left shows that few homes were sold, far lower than in previous years.

The market has more than 8 months of inventory right now, making it a buyers market.

• Search for University Hills homes
• Snapshot of University Hills housing market
• University Hills Real Estate Blog
• University Hills Neighborhood Newsletter

Homes at the Mueller Airport in Austin, TX have available since the end of 2007, with most residents moving in 2008 or later. To date, around 340 homes are occupied, with a total of 10,000 residents planned. Here’s the market stats for the market rates homes in Mueller to date:

Average # of bedrooms / bathrooms: 4/3

Average size of a home at Mueller:  2383 sqft

Average days on market for a house at Mueller : 95 days

Average list price: $419,678

Average list price to sales price for a home at Mueller: Please contact for details.

The affordable program at the Mueller Airport is not included in these statistics, nor the statistics for the town homes or condos that are available at Mueller Austin.

Some homes at Mueller aren’t available on the MLS. For example Standard Pacific Homes at Mueller only keep one of each of their available floorplans listed on the Austin MLS, while they have 7 in inventory.

Useful links:

• What’s my Mueller Austin Home Worth?
• See Mueller Airport Homes  For Sale
  
• Contact an Austin Real Estate Agent

University Hills, Austin.  This relatively sleepy area of East Austin was the target of many property investors in 2006 and 2007. Homes were very low priced per square foot, and were larger than in surrounding areas like Windsor Park and Pecan Springs.

University Hills was a low turnover neighborhood in general – many residents were the first or second occupants of their homes built in the 1960s and 1970s. So the investors moved in and rehabs and remodels were a common part of the landscape during 2007 and 2008.

The real estate market has slowed in 2009 in line with much of the Austin market, with higher than average inventory and lower sales as can be seen in the tables below.

List prices are being pushed down, although the tax assessor has raised the value of the larger lots significantly – lots of 0.25-0.3 acres are not uncommon.

It’s a great time to buy in University Hills for a larger home near to the amenities at the Mueller Airport.

Year To 2/2/2009	University Hills
Number of Sales	1
Average List Price	$178,682.00
Median List Price per Square Foot	$105.65
Active Listings (homes that are for sale)	30
Average Days on Market	90
Number currently under contract	4

Year	Sales YTD	Average List Price
2009	1	$178,682.00
2008	4	$181,600.00
2007	4	$180,934.00
2006	6	$149,440.00

• Search for University Hills homes
• Snapshot of University Hills housing market
• University Hills Real Estate Blog
• University Hills Neighborhood Newsletter

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